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Egypt’s Last Chance

Jan 13, 2021
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What options does a nation have when its future depends on another country’s decisions about a resource the other country controls? That’s what Egypt has to figure out. Ethiopia’s decision to build a dam on the Blue Nile threatens Egypt’s freshwater supplies. To stop the project, Cairo has tried rattling sabers at Addis Ababa, or attracting the support of a major power, but to no avail. What it has left, as stated in GPF’s 2021 forecast, is to lean on local partners and encourage Ethiopia’s ethnic divisions to try to secure for itself a better negotiating position with Addis Ababa. Whether this course of action can or will work is an open question, but other options are in short supply. A Lifeline In a country that is almost entirely desert, the Nile River is a natural lifeline. Over 90 percent of Egypt’s population lives along the banks of the river and its delta. Yet of the Nile River’s two major tributaries, the one that contributes roughly 85 percent of the water flowing into Egypt, the Blue Nile, starts far away, in the highlands of Ethiopia, before traversing through Sudan and finally into Egypt. And this supply is in jeopardy because […]

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Allison Fedirka

Allison Fedirka is the director of analysis for Geopolitical Futures. In addition to writing analyses, she helps train new analysts, oversees the intellectual quality of analyst work and helps guide the forecasting process. Prior to joining Geopolitical Futures, Ms. Fedirka worked for Stratfor as a Latin America specialist and subsequently as the Latin America regional director. She lived in South America – primarily Argentina and Brazil – for more than seven years and, in addition to English, fluently speaks Spanish and Portuguese. Ms. Fedirka has a bachelor’s degree in Spanish and international studies from Washington University in St. Louis and a master’s degree in international relations and affairs from the University of Belgrano, Argentina. Her thesis was on Brazil and Angola and south-south cooperation.

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